Saturday, January 29, 2011

Better Hope He's Right

John Guardino at The American Spectator blog believes the current revolt in Egypt will result in a showdown between the nation's military and the Muslim Brotherhood. Ultimately, he believes the armed forces will prevail:

Egypt, then, has turned a decisive corner, and there is no going back. Mubarak is history. Egypt's rising middle class is demanding greater political freedom and economic opportunity.

Mubarak long ago should have been instituting political reforms that allow for a more representative government. That he did not do so is why Egypt is now being rocked by violent protests.

And while Islamist elements may well try to take advantage of the Egyptian revolution, they face one almost insurmountable obstacle: the Egyptian military, a professional force and a nationally respected institution which views itself as the guardians of greater Egypt.

Indeed, the Egyptian military is not dominated by Islamists; and it will not allow Egypt to descend into total anarchy.

It was the military, Mr. Guardino notes, who led a 1952 coup aimed at rooting out corruption and establishing a more representative government. One of the members of that movement was a young officer named Anwar El Sadat, who later signed the Camp David peace accords, establishing peace with Israel.

Yet, Sadat died at the hands of Islamists within the ranks of his own military. Attending a military parade 6 October 1981, Mr. Sadat was gunned down by soldiers aligned with Egyptian Islamic Jihad who stormed the reviewing stand, firing automatic weapons and tossing grenades.

Thirty years later, we can only wonder how much influence the Islamists have attained within the Egyptian military--not at the flag ranks, but among junior officers and ordinary soldiers, those most likely to side with the Muslim Brotherhood and other radical elements.
ADDENDUM: Late reporting from Cairo suggests that operatives from Hamas have crossed into Egypt from the Gaza Strip, linking up with members of the Brotherhood to provide assistance and support. Calling that development disturbing would be a grave understatement.

1 comment:

Whiskey said...

I fear John Guardino is engaging in wishful thinking. I would wish for the same, but I do not see any upside for the military; they would be pitting themselves against much or most of the populace, a corrosive situation. I do see fuel being added to the fire by a flow of terrorists (Islamists) into Egypt. Then there were the apparent raids on certain prisons that released terrorists. Sounded organized to me. You alsou have el Baradei climbing out of his slime pit, and how odd that he hearts the Muslim Brotherhood. Then you also have the apparently pervasive anti-Israel sentiment voiced by the demonstrators. (Too many thens, but hey, off the cuff writing...)
Are those quoted the norm? I fear they are, but I do not know, and worry that these sentiments will be brushed off by our tranzi press.
I see little prospect for a positive-to-democracy and the US outcome, and much to worry about what appears to be coming down the pike. I hope I am wrong.