On the evening of August 1, 2000, Arizona Senator John McCain was in New York for the Republican National Convention. After delivering a televised speech endorsing the presidential nomination of his former rival, George W. Bush, Mr. McCain adjourned to the city’s landmark Tavern-on-the-Green restaurant, for an early birthday party.
While Senator McCain was actually born on 29 August, the New York event gave him a chance to celebrate with some of his closest friends—from the MSM. The list of attendees reportedly included a number of luminaries from the broadcast and cable networks, as well as various print outlets. By some accounts, the media types outnumbered Republican politicians and party officials at the McCain bash.
But the heavy media presence was hardly a surprise. McCain had always actively courted the press, making him something of a rarity among senior Republican pols. And the media largely returned the favor. McCain’s “Straight Talk Express” was a hit with political reporters; the Senator spent hours in the back of his campaign bus, offering doughnuts and swapping stories with correspondents, producers and technicians who covered his presidential bid.
Flash forward eight years and McCain remained a media darling. As recently as a few weeks ago, some pundits believed that press coverage of this year’s campaign “would be a wash,” because the Arizona Senator was just as popular with the media as his Democratic rivals.
But most of us knew better.
In a press corps that votes for Democrats by overwhelming margins, it was just a matter of time before they turned their sights on this year’s presumptive GOP nominee, John McCain. And sure enough, today’s New York Times print is leading the attack, with claims that the Senator might have had a romantic relationship with a female lobbyist during his first run for the White House. There are also charges that McCain did legislative favors for the lobbyist’s clients. But, as Allahpundit observes, this so-called “scandal” seems awfully thin:
A sex scandal that may not be a scandal tucked inside an ethics scandal that may not be an ethics scandal tucked inside an ethics scandal that was a genuine scandal 20 years ago, and for which McCain has begged forgiveness ever since. The Paper of Record.
The media halo’s gone, Maverick. Nothing personal. Just business.
According to Matt Drudge, this “story” has been under development for quite a while. Originally, the NYT was trying to prove that the lobbyist had actually written parts of a telecom bill sponsored by McCain. But that accusation didn’t make the final cut, another indicator of how weak the reporting actually is.
Still, the article’s substance doesn’t really matter. Today’s NYT piece signals the start of the media war against John McCain, a campaign that was inevitable, given his party affiliation. In fact, the only folks that seem surprised by the media offensive are with the McCain campaign, which released this angry statement:
“It is a shame that The New York Times has lowered its standards to engage in a hit-and-run smear campaign. John McCain has a 24-year record of serving our country with honor and integrity. He has never violated the public trust, never done favors for special interests or lobbyists, and he will not allow a smear campaign to distract from the issues at stake in this election.
“Americans are sick and tired of this kind of gutter politics, and there is nothing in this story to suggest that John McCain has ever violated the principles that have guided his career.”
That may be true, but the Times little expose provides an opening for the media to examine every aspect of McCain’s public career, a period that covers more than 40 years. Lest we forget, McCain's public life began well before he entered politics. He became a national hero for his conduct as a POW in North Vietnam, and was (arguably) one of the nation's best-know naval aviators after his return from Hanoi.
And, as we've noted in previous posts, McCain's conduct during that period was sometimes less-than-sterling. By his own admission, McCain was an unfaithful husband during the late 1970s, and his first marriage fell apart. Long-standing rumors suggest that some of McCain's paramours were women under his command--a claim that the Senator has steadfastly denied.
But, if Senator McCain's "relationship" with a lobbyist eight years ago is fair game, what about his conduct as a senior naval officer? We can only wonder if the NYT (and other MSM outlets) have been poking around the Navy's aviation community, looking for anyone who can detail McCain's romantic exploits from three decades ago.
Afterall, adultery was--and is--a punishable offense under the Uniform Code of Military Justice (UCMJ), and romantic relationships between subordinates and superiors are also prohibited. Besides, accounts of McCain's behavior during that period would fit the template established by the NYT article, suggesting a man given to personal and ethical lapses.
Perhaps the biggest surprise in this episode has been the reaction of the McCain camp. In a press conference in Ohio this morning, the Senator again expressed "disappointment" in the Times. As if he actually expected the mother church of liberal media orthodoxy to treat him fairly. If that accurately summarizes the candidates' perception, both Senator McCain (and the GOP) have a serious problem.
Michelle Malkin said it best: "lie down with MSM dogs, get up with stories like this." And, here's another point-worth-pondering for the McCain campaign. Imagine if all the time and effort devoted to courting the media had been spent with a more important group, the Republican base. The Senator would still get his share of hit pieces in the NYT, but he might find more Republicans voting for him in the primaries, and more conservatives leaping to his defense.
Showing posts with label John McCain. Show all posts
Showing posts with label John McCain. Show all posts
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Friday, February 01, 2008
Leading for Patriotism or Lust?
John McCain scored the most memorable soundbite in the recent GOP debate, repeatedly telling rival Mitt Romney that "led for patriotism, not profit." The Arizona Senator was referring to his tour as executive officer (and later, commander) of a Navy Replacement Air Group in Jacksonville, Florida during the late 1970s, contrasting that experience with Mitt Romney's career in the business world.
There is a slight irony in McCain citing that assignment as proof of his leadership abilities. While he was, by most accounts, an effective commander, the Jacksonville assignment also marked a dark chapter in McCain's personal life, a period marked by serial philandering and the end of his first marriage.
Those events are described--delicately--in Robert Timberg's The Nightingale's Song, a best-selling chronicle of the U.S. Naval Academy, as viewed through the lives (and military service) of five graduates: McCain; Virginia Senator Jim Webb; former National Security Advisers Robert McFarlane and John Poindexter, and Iran-Contra figure-turned-media personality Oliver North.
Of the five, Timberg provides the most flattering potraits of Webb and McCain; Poindexter and McFarlane receive less laudatory treatment and the author can barely contain his contempt for Ollie North. While acknowledging the personal--and professional--problems of his subjects during their military careers, Timberg offers a (slightly) charitable explanation for the poor personal conduct that plagued McCain's assignment as group commander.
There was a dark side to the Jacksonville tour. The storybook marriage that had survived separation, pain and prison began to fray. Off-duty, usually on routine, cross-country flights to Yuma and El Centro, John began carousing and running around with women. To make matters worse, some of the women to whom he was linked by rumor were his subordinates. In some ways, the rumors were an extension of the John McCain stories that had swirled in his way since Academy days--some true, some with an element of truth, some patently absurd. Asked about them, he admitted to a series of dalliances during this period, but flatly denied any with females, officer or enlisted, under his command.
Though officially frowned upon, romantic relationships between officers of different grades are not uncommon and for the most part, free of a superior-subordinate element. Many have led to marriage. But fraternization between officers and enlisted members is considered over the line, not because of caste discrimination, but because the color of authority is too vivid, almost impossible to soften.
At the time, the rumors were so widespread that, true or not, they became part of the McCain persona, impossible not to take note of. What is true is that a number of POWs, in those first few years after their release, often acted erratically, their lives pockmarked by by drastic mood swings and uncharacteristic behavior before achieving a more mellow equilibrium.
There is a slight irony in McCain citing that assignment as proof of his leadership abilities. While he was, by most accounts, an effective commander, the Jacksonville assignment also marked a dark chapter in McCain's personal life, a period marked by serial philandering and the end of his first marriage.
Those events are described--delicately--in Robert Timberg's The Nightingale's Song, a best-selling chronicle of the U.S. Naval Academy, as viewed through the lives (and military service) of five graduates: McCain; Virginia Senator Jim Webb; former National Security Advisers Robert McFarlane and John Poindexter, and Iran-Contra figure-turned-media personality Oliver North.
Of the five, Timberg provides the most flattering potraits of Webb and McCain; Poindexter and McFarlane receive less laudatory treatment and the author can barely contain his contempt for Ollie North. While acknowledging the personal--and professional--problems of his subjects during their military careers, Timberg offers a (slightly) charitable explanation for the poor personal conduct that plagued McCain's assignment as group commander.
There was a dark side to the Jacksonville tour. The storybook marriage that had survived separation, pain and prison began to fray. Off-duty, usually on routine, cross-country flights to Yuma and El Centro, John began carousing and running around with women. To make matters worse, some of the women to whom he was linked by rumor were his subordinates. In some ways, the rumors were an extension of the John McCain stories that had swirled in his way since Academy days--some true, some with an element of truth, some patently absurd. Asked about them, he admitted to a series of dalliances during this period, but flatly denied any with females, officer or enlisted, under his command.
Though officially frowned upon, romantic relationships between officers of different grades are not uncommon and for the most part, free of a superior-subordinate element. Many have led to marriage. But fraternization between officers and enlisted members is considered over the line, not because of caste discrimination, but because the color of authority is too vivid, almost impossible to soften.
At the time, the rumors were so widespread that, true or not, they became part of the McCain persona, impossible not to take note of. What is true is that a number of POWs, in those first few years after their release, often acted erratically, their lives pockmarked by by drastic mood swings and uncharacteristic behavior before achieving a more mellow equilibrium.
More troubling, sad beyond words, was the failure of the marriage. If there was one couple that deserved to make it, it was John and Carol McCain. They endured nearly six years of unspeakable trauma with courage and grace. In the end, it was not enough. They won the war, but lost the peace.
To his credit, McCain has admitted his indiscretions during this period. And, Carol McCain has refused to publicly criticize her former husband, or discuss the end of their marriage in detail. She told Robert Timberg that "I attribute it more to John turning 40 and wanting to be 25 again than I do anything else." So, chalk it up as another middle-aged man suffering a mid-life crisis.
But we'd say the Jacksonville tour raises questions about McCain's judgment and leadership, issues that have never been fully explained. True, John McCain wasn't the first fighter jock to lose a marriage due to extra-curricular activities. It's also true that he had a reputation as a wild man, dating back to his time at the Academy and early tours as an attack pilot.
Still, the John McCain who led a naval training group wasn't the same junior aviator of the early 1960s. As the unit commander, McCain was supposed to set the example, both on and off-duty. Military regulations on adultery, fraternization and improper relationships don't differentiate between those that begin in the workplace, or in the Officers' Club. And, as one of the Navy's best-known officers (thanks to his heroism as a POW), you could argue that McCain had a special responsiblity to uphold standards.
If Timberg's description is correct--and McCain has never disputed it--then the Senator was potentially guilty of multiple violations of military law as a senior officer. Yet, there is no account of Captain McCain being investigated on accusations of adultery and fraternization, despite those "widespread rumors" that became a part of the McCain persona. Did he get a pass because of his POW status or family ties, as the son and grandson of Navy admirals? That's another question that has never been answered.
Obviously, no one is demanding that McCain be court-martialed for events that happened 30 years ago. But his misconduct in Jacksonville is relevant to McCain's subsequent political campaign. Those extra-marital "dalliances" reflect faulty judgment and poor choices, traits that have been evident in the Senator's subsequent legislative record. Anyone remember the Keating 5? McCain-Feingold? McCain-Leiberman? McCain-Kennedy? Voting against the Bush tax cuts on more than one occasion? Blocking conservative judicial nominees as part of the "Gang of Fourteen?"
That's why the Senator's repeated references to his Jacksonville tour struck us as a bit puzzling. If command of that group represented John McCain at his best (as a leader), then it highlighted some of his worst personal qualities as well. That's the "rest" of the Jacksonville story, which should provide some campaign grist for the Democratic attack mill.
We also wonder if McCain's reputation in Jacksonville is one reason that the area rejected him overwhelmingly in last week's Florida primary. Of the state's four major military regions, Jacksonville (the third-largest Navy town in the United States) was the only one that McCain lost, and by double-digit margins.
***
ADDENDUM: We disagree with Timberg's explanation that McCain's conduct was "typical" of erratic behavior among former POWs in the late 1970s. During the early stages of our military service, we had the opportunity to meet--and know--several men who had been held in the Hanoi Hilton. While most suffered re-adjustment problems (to varying degrees), all the POWs we knew remained faithful to their wives.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
What Happened in Jacksonville?
While John McCain claimed victory in yesterday's Florida GOP primary, results also showed a surprising defeat in a military town he once called home.
Statewide, the Arizona Senator cruised to an easy victory over his nearest rival, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Mr. McCain captured 36% of the vote in yesterday's primary, compared to 31% for Mitt Romney. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Guliani, who staked his entire campaign on the Florida outcome, finished a distant third, just ahead of former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. Guliani is expected to drop out of the race today and endorse McCain.
But in the Jacksonville, the nation's third-largest Navy town--and a city where McCain once led a naval air group--Romney returned the favor, racking up double-digit margins in three counties with a large military population.
In Duval County--which includes the city of Jacksonville--Mr. Romney won by 15 points. He put up similar margins in nearby St. John and Clay counties. McCain's best showing in the region came in Nassau County, north of Jacksonville, but he still lost to Governor Romney by six points.
It was, perhaps, the only blight on a big night for Senator McCain. With his victory in Florida, McCain is in a commanding position to capture the GOP presidential nomination, while his opponents saw their prospects dashed, if not eliminated.
Exit polling from Florida indicates that Mr. McCain scored well among Republican moderates, liberals, Latinos and elderly voters. However, he trailed Mitt Romney among voters who identified themselves as conservatives, and younger voters, suggesting a potentially tight primary battle.
That's one reason the "veteran vote" was considered crucial in Florida. There are at least 300,000 military personnel, dependents and retirees who reside in Florida. Thousands of military personnel outside the state also claim Florida as their home, voting in elections by absentee ballot. In a close contest, the military voting bloc might prove decisive.
But, as in other recent primaries, the military vote broke solidly for Senator McCain. According to Associated Press exit polling, more than one in four GOP voters in Florida (27%) identified themselves as veterans. Mr. McCain received 42% of the votes from that group in Tuesday's primary.
County-by-county returns indicate that Senator McCain won three of Florida’s four “military” regions, where most of the active duty personnel and retirees are concentrated. McCain carried four of the five counties in the panhandle, an area that includes the Pensacola navy base; Whiting Field Naval Air Station; the massive Eglin AFB complex, and Hurlburt Field, home of Air Force Special Operations Command.
Senator McCain won by eleven-point margins in three of that area’s five counties, including Okaloosa, which has one of the nation’s highest concentrations of military voters, roughly 20% of the electorate. By comparison, Governor Romney won only one county in the region (Bay County, home to Tyndall AFB), and his margin of victory was only one point.
McCain also triumphed along the “Space Coast” in Brevard County (where Patrick AFB and Cape Canaveral are located), and in the four counties that make up the Tampa Bay metro region (Hillsborough, Pinellas, Hernando and Pasco). That region also has a large population of military personnel, assigned to MacDill AFB and the two major commands headquartered at that installation.
Given his victory in other military regions, McCain's loss in Jacksonville had to be disappointing. By one estimate, at least 30,000 voters in the area have some sort of military affiliation, including active duty personnel, dependents and retirees.
McCain also has personal ties to the area. Toward the end of his Navy career, he served as Executive Officer (and later, Commander) of an A-7 training unit in the Jacksonville area. In a sense, McCain has been well-known in the local naval community for more than 30 years. But those connections did not produce a majority among Jacksonville's Republican voters.
Without more detailed exit polling data, it’s difficult to reach firm conclusions about John McCain’s loss in Jacksonville. It’s possible that the Senator won a majority among military voters, but it wasn’t enough to overcome Romney’s support among other groups.
Mike Huckabee’s relatively poor showing in the Jacksonville area (he pulled less than 17% of the vote in three of the four counties) may have provided another boost for Romney. However, that trend didn’t apply to other military areas. Huckabee had similar numbers in the four counties that comprise the Tampa Bay metro area, which John McCain carried by an average of seven points.
As the race for the GOP nomination goes “national” with Super Tuesday, the focus on individual states (and key constituencies within those states) will become less important. While Senator McCain’s Florida win put him in position to claim more victories (and delegates) next week, his loss in Jacksonville is a bit puzzling.
In sharp contrast to South Carolina, where the state's large navy population (centered around Charleston) went overwhelmingly for McCain, the nation's third-largest Navy town, Jacksonville, rejected him by a wide margin.
Makes you wonder: do the people of Jacksonville know something that other voters missed?
Statewide, the Arizona Senator cruised to an easy victory over his nearest rival, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Mr. McCain captured 36% of the vote in yesterday's primary, compared to 31% for Mitt Romney. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Guliani, who staked his entire campaign on the Florida outcome, finished a distant third, just ahead of former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. Guliani is expected to drop out of the race today and endorse McCain.
But in the Jacksonville, the nation's third-largest Navy town--and a city where McCain once led a naval air group--Romney returned the favor, racking up double-digit margins in three counties with a large military population.
In Duval County--which includes the city of Jacksonville--Mr. Romney won by 15 points. He put up similar margins in nearby St. John and Clay counties. McCain's best showing in the region came in Nassau County, north of Jacksonville, but he still lost to Governor Romney by six points.
It was, perhaps, the only blight on a big night for Senator McCain. With his victory in Florida, McCain is in a commanding position to capture the GOP presidential nomination, while his opponents saw their prospects dashed, if not eliminated.
Exit polling from Florida indicates that Mr. McCain scored well among Republican moderates, liberals, Latinos and elderly voters. However, he trailed Mitt Romney among voters who identified themselves as conservatives, and younger voters, suggesting a potentially tight primary battle.
That's one reason the "veteran vote" was considered crucial in Florida. There are at least 300,000 military personnel, dependents and retirees who reside in Florida. Thousands of military personnel outside the state also claim Florida as their home, voting in elections by absentee ballot. In a close contest, the military voting bloc might prove decisive.
But, as in other recent primaries, the military vote broke solidly for Senator McCain. According to Associated Press exit polling, more than one in four GOP voters in Florida (27%) identified themselves as veterans. Mr. McCain received 42% of the votes from that group in Tuesday's primary.
County-by-county returns indicate that Senator McCain won three of Florida’s four “military” regions, where most of the active duty personnel and retirees are concentrated. McCain carried four of the five counties in the panhandle, an area that includes the Pensacola navy base; Whiting Field Naval Air Station; the massive Eglin AFB complex, and Hurlburt Field, home of Air Force Special Operations Command.
Senator McCain won by eleven-point margins in three of that area’s five counties, including Okaloosa, which has one of the nation’s highest concentrations of military voters, roughly 20% of the electorate. By comparison, Governor Romney won only one county in the region (Bay County, home to Tyndall AFB), and his margin of victory was only one point.
McCain also triumphed along the “Space Coast” in Brevard County (where Patrick AFB and Cape Canaveral are located), and in the four counties that make up the Tampa Bay metro region (Hillsborough, Pinellas, Hernando and Pasco). That region also has a large population of military personnel, assigned to MacDill AFB and the two major commands headquartered at that installation.
Given his victory in other military regions, McCain's loss in Jacksonville had to be disappointing. By one estimate, at least 30,000 voters in the area have some sort of military affiliation, including active duty personnel, dependents and retirees.
McCain also has personal ties to the area. Toward the end of his Navy career, he served as Executive Officer (and later, Commander) of an A-7 training unit in the Jacksonville area. In a sense, McCain has been well-known in the local naval community for more than 30 years. But those connections did not produce a majority among Jacksonville's Republican voters.
Without more detailed exit polling data, it’s difficult to reach firm conclusions about John McCain’s loss in Jacksonville. It’s possible that the Senator won a majority among military voters, but it wasn’t enough to overcome Romney’s support among other groups.
Mike Huckabee’s relatively poor showing in the Jacksonville area (he pulled less than 17% of the vote in three of the four counties) may have provided another boost for Romney. However, that trend didn’t apply to other military areas. Huckabee had similar numbers in the four counties that comprise the Tampa Bay metro area, which John McCain carried by an average of seven points.
As the race for the GOP nomination goes “national” with Super Tuesday, the focus on individual states (and key constituencies within those states) will become less important. While Senator McCain’s Florida win put him in position to claim more victories (and delegates) next week, his loss in Jacksonville is a bit puzzling.
In sharp contrast to South Carolina, where the state's large navy population (centered around Charleston) went overwhelmingly for McCain, the nation's third-largest Navy town, Jacksonville, rejected him by a wide margin.
Makes you wonder: do the people of Jacksonville know something that other voters missed?
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Can Military Voters Deliver McCain Again?
Today’s Republican primary in Florida appears headed for a photo-finish between Arizona Senator John McCain and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.
Forty-eight hours before the polls opened, a Zogby poll showed the two candidates deadlocked at 30%, well ahead of former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and New York Mayor Rudolph Guliani, who trail with 14 and 13%, respectively.
The former mayor, who skipped six straight early contests to focus on Florida, has slumped badly in the polls over the last month. The latest Rasmussen poll, also released on Sunday, showed Romney leading McCain by six points, and Guliani running a distant third, with only 14%.
With the Florida GOP primary now a two-man race, support of military voters and retirees may (again) prove crucial for McCain. They proved to be a decisive block in the recent South Carolina primary.
While active duty military and retirees represent only 14% of the electorate in the Palmetto State, they accounted for 25% of the 400,000 votes cast in last month’s Republican primary, and they broke solidly for McCain.
As we noted at the time, the Senator’s “triangle” of support included the coastal and Midlands counties that are home to that state’s Army, Navy, Marine Corps and Air Force installations and most of South Carolina’s military retirees. McCain’s support among military voters was more than enough to offset Mike Huckabee’s advantage among evangelicals, concentrated in the upstate region.
Active duty and retired military members represent an even greater prize in Florida. Figures from the state House of Representatives indicated that almost 80,000 military personnel are stationed in the Sunshine State, along with 42,000 military spouses. Another estimate puts the number of military retirees in Florida at 180,000.
Additionally, there are thousands of military personnel who list the state as their home, but are stationed outside Florida. That group became the center of controversy during the 2000 presidential election, amid complaints that some military members (and dependents) had trouble obtaining absentee ballots, received them too late to be counted, and that Democrat operatives were attempting to “suppress” their votes.
Eight years later, it’s unclear how many military personnel have submitted absentee ballots for today’s GOP primary. However, that number may be very high, given the surge in early voting reported by the state Democratic and Republican parties. As of Sunday afternoon, almost a million people had voted early or cast absentee ballots, nearly matching the total turnout for the last contested GOP and Democratic primaries in Florida.
That’s why military voters represent such a key prize in today’s Republican primary. Despite the strains of on-going conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, military members are much more likely to identify themselves as Republicans, in comparison to other Americans . As a 2004 Annenburg study revealed:
Forty-three percent called themselves Republican, 19 percent called themselves Democrats and 28 percent said they were independents. While the party identification of respondents in national polls moves around a bit from week to week, this was strikingly more Republican than the general population in the September 27-October 3 sample. There, 28 percent called themselves Republican, 34 percent Democratic and 27 percent independent.
Active duty military personnel and retirees are also more likely to vote than the general public, making them a reliable block for the Republican candidates they support.
So far, we haven’t seen any polling among Florida’s military population, so it’s hard to what sort of lead McCain has among that group, or if he has an actual advantage. But, in what’s shaping up as an extremely tight race, support among military personnel, retirees and dependents could propel the Senator to key victory, or hand him a stinging defeat. As tonight’s results come in, here are a few regions and counties to watch.
Northwest Florida: The region that includes Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton and Bay Counties is home to the Pensacola Naval Base; Whiting Field Naval Air Station; Tyndall AFB, Hurlburt Field and the sprawling Eglin AFB. Heavily Republican, these counties have one of the nation’s highest concentrations of active duty military personnel and retirees. There are at least 37,000 military voters in Okaloosa County alone, more than 20% of the local population--and a sizeable portion of the electorate.
The Jacksonville Area: Duval, Clay, St John’s and Nassau Counties. Jacksonville is a Navy town with three major military installations, while a number of armed forces retirees live in the surrounding counties. In South Carolina, McCain rolled up solid margins in the region around Charleston’s navy facilities, and he hopes to accomplish the same feat in northeast Florida.
The Space Coast: Brevard County is the home to Patrick AFB, Cape Canaveral and the Kennedy Space Center, with another sizeable contingent of active duty military personnel and retirees.
Tampa-St. Petersburg: MacDill AFB (where CENTCOM and U.S. Special Operations Command have their headquarters) is located in Tampa, and there are significant numbers of military voters in the three counties that make up the metro area: Hillsborough, Pinellas, Hernando and Pasco.
There are smaller military clusters in southern Dade County (around Homestead Air Reserve Base), and in Monroe County, home of the Key West Naval Air Station.
In what promises to be a tight election, a few thousand votes in Florida’s “military counties” could make or break McCain’s chances.
***
ADDENDUM: A final ARG tracking poll from Florida (released this morning) shows Romney with a slight lead, 34-32%, but it’s within the survey’s margin of error. However, other, last-minute polls give Senator McCain a narrow advantage. That underscores the importance of today's military vote; in a close contest, gaining a plurality among the state’s 300,000 military voters may prove decisive (H/T: NRO’s The Corner).
Forty-eight hours before the polls opened, a Zogby poll showed the two candidates deadlocked at 30%, well ahead of former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and New York Mayor Rudolph Guliani, who trail with 14 and 13%, respectively.
The former mayor, who skipped six straight early contests to focus on Florida, has slumped badly in the polls over the last month. The latest Rasmussen poll, also released on Sunday, showed Romney leading McCain by six points, and Guliani running a distant third, with only 14%.
With the Florida GOP primary now a two-man race, support of military voters and retirees may (again) prove crucial for McCain. They proved to be a decisive block in the recent South Carolina primary.
While active duty military and retirees represent only 14% of the electorate in the Palmetto State, they accounted for 25% of the 400,000 votes cast in last month’s Republican primary, and they broke solidly for McCain.
As we noted at the time, the Senator’s “triangle” of support included the coastal and Midlands counties that are home to that state’s Army, Navy, Marine Corps and Air Force installations and most of South Carolina’s military retirees. McCain’s support among military voters was more than enough to offset Mike Huckabee’s advantage among evangelicals, concentrated in the upstate region.
Active duty and retired military members represent an even greater prize in Florida. Figures from the state House of Representatives indicated that almost 80,000 military personnel are stationed in the Sunshine State, along with 42,000 military spouses. Another estimate puts the number of military retirees in Florida at 180,000.
Additionally, there are thousands of military personnel who list the state as their home, but are stationed outside Florida. That group became the center of controversy during the 2000 presidential election, amid complaints that some military members (and dependents) had trouble obtaining absentee ballots, received them too late to be counted, and that Democrat operatives were attempting to “suppress” their votes.
Eight years later, it’s unclear how many military personnel have submitted absentee ballots for today’s GOP primary. However, that number may be very high, given the surge in early voting reported by the state Democratic and Republican parties. As of Sunday afternoon, almost a million people had voted early or cast absentee ballots, nearly matching the total turnout for the last contested GOP and Democratic primaries in Florida.
That’s why military voters represent such a key prize in today’s Republican primary. Despite the strains of on-going conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, military members are much more likely to identify themselves as Republicans, in comparison to other Americans . As a 2004 Annenburg study revealed:
Forty-three percent called themselves Republican, 19 percent called themselves Democrats and 28 percent said they were independents. While the party identification of respondents in national polls moves around a bit from week to week, this was strikingly more Republican than the general population in the September 27-October 3 sample. There, 28 percent called themselves Republican, 34 percent Democratic and 27 percent independent.
Active duty military personnel and retirees are also more likely to vote than the general public, making them a reliable block for the Republican candidates they support.
So far, we haven’t seen any polling among Florida’s military population, so it’s hard to what sort of lead McCain has among that group, or if he has an actual advantage. But, in what’s shaping up as an extremely tight race, support among military personnel, retirees and dependents could propel the Senator to key victory, or hand him a stinging defeat. As tonight’s results come in, here are a few regions and counties to watch.
Northwest Florida: The region that includes Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton and Bay Counties is home to the Pensacola Naval Base; Whiting Field Naval Air Station; Tyndall AFB, Hurlburt Field and the sprawling Eglin AFB. Heavily Republican, these counties have one of the nation’s highest concentrations of active duty military personnel and retirees. There are at least 37,000 military voters in Okaloosa County alone, more than 20% of the local population--and a sizeable portion of the electorate.
The Jacksonville Area: Duval, Clay, St John’s and Nassau Counties. Jacksonville is a Navy town with three major military installations, while a number of armed forces retirees live in the surrounding counties. In South Carolina, McCain rolled up solid margins in the region around Charleston’s navy facilities, and he hopes to accomplish the same feat in northeast Florida.
The Space Coast: Brevard County is the home to Patrick AFB, Cape Canaveral and the Kennedy Space Center, with another sizeable contingent of active duty military personnel and retirees.
Tampa-St. Petersburg: MacDill AFB (where CENTCOM and U.S. Special Operations Command have their headquarters) is located in Tampa, and there are significant numbers of military voters in the three counties that make up the metro area: Hillsborough, Pinellas, Hernando and Pasco.
There are smaller military clusters in southern Dade County (around Homestead Air Reserve Base), and in Monroe County, home of the Key West Naval Air Station.
In what promises to be a tight election, a few thousand votes in Florida’s “military counties” could make or break McCain’s chances.
***
ADDENDUM: A final ARG tracking poll from Florida (released this morning) shows Romney with a slight lead, 34-32%, but it’s within the survey’s margin of error. However, other, last-minute polls give Senator McCain a narrow advantage. That underscores the importance of today's military vote; in a close contest, gaining a plurality among the state’s 300,000 military voters may prove decisive (H/T: NRO’s The Corner).
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)