While John McCain claimed victory in yesterday's Florida GOP primary, results also showed a surprising defeat in a military town he once called home.
Statewide, the Arizona Senator cruised to an easy victory over his nearest rival, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Mr. McCain captured 36% of the vote in yesterday's primary, compared to 31% for Mitt Romney. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Guliani, who staked his entire campaign on the Florida outcome, finished a distant third, just ahead of former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. Guliani is expected to drop out of the race today and endorse McCain.
But in the Jacksonville, the nation's third-largest Navy town--and a city where McCain once led a naval air group--Romney returned the favor, racking up double-digit margins in three counties with a large military population.
In Duval County--which includes the city of Jacksonville--Mr. Romney won by 15 points. He put up similar margins in nearby St. John and Clay counties. McCain's best showing in the region came in Nassau County, north of Jacksonville, but he still lost to Governor Romney by six points.
It was, perhaps, the only blight on a big night for Senator McCain. With his victory in Florida, McCain is in a commanding position to capture the GOP presidential nomination, while his opponents saw their prospects dashed, if not eliminated.
Exit polling from Florida indicates that Mr. McCain scored well among Republican moderates, liberals, Latinos and elderly voters. However, he trailed Mitt Romney among voters who identified themselves as conservatives, and younger voters, suggesting a potentially tight primary battle.
That's one reason the "veteran vote" was considered crucial in Florida. There are at least 300,000 military personnel, dependents and retirees who reside in Florida. Thousands of military personnel outside the state also claim Florida as their home, voting in elections by absentee ballot. In a close contest, the military voting bloc might prove decisive.
But, as in other recent primaries, the military vote broke solidly for Senator McCain. According to Associated Press exit polling, more than one in four GOP voters in Florida (27%) identified themselves as veterans. Mr. McCain received 42% of the votes from that group in Tuesday's primary.
County-by-county returns indicate that Senator McCain won three of Florida’s four “military” regions, where most of the active duty personnel and retirees are concentrated. McCain carried four of the five counties in the panhandle, an area that includes the Pensacola navy base; Whiting Field Naval Air Station; the massive Eglin AFB complex, and Hurlburt Field, home of Air Force Special Operations Command.
Senator McCain won by eleven-point margins in three of that area’s five counties, including Okaloosa, which has one of the nation’s highest concentrations of military voters, roughly 20% of the electorate. By comparison, Governor Romney won only one county in the region (Bay County, home to Tyndall AFB), and his margin of victory was only one point.
McCain also triumphed along the “Space Coast” in Brevard County (where Patrick AFB and Cape Canaveral are located), and in the four counties that make up the Tampa Bay metro region (Hillsborough, Pinellas, Hernando and Pasco). That region also has a large population of military personnel, assigned to MacDill AFB and the two major commands headquartered at that installation.
Given his victory in other military regions, McCain's loss in Jacksonville had to be disappointing. By one estimate, at least 30,000 voters in the area have some sort of military affiliation, including active duty personnel, dependents and retirees.
McCain also has personal ties to the area. Toward the end of his Navy career, he served as Executive Officer (and later, Commander) of an A-7 training unit in the Jacksonville area. In a sense, McCain has been well-known in the local naval community for more than 30 years. But those connections did not produce a majority among Jacksonville's Republican voters.
Without more detailed exit polling data, it’s difficult to reach firm conclusions about John McCain’s loss in Jacksonville. It’s possible that the Senator won a majority among military voters, but it wasn’t enough to overcome Romney’s support among other groups.
Mike Huckabee’s relatively poor showing in the Jacksonville area (he pulled less than 17% of the vote in three of the four counties) may have provided another boost for Romney. However, that trend didn’t apply to other military areas. Huckabee had similar numbers in the four counties that comprise the Tampa Bay metro area, which John McCain carried by an average of seven points.
As the race for the GOP nomination goes “national” with Super Tuesday, the focus on individual states (and key constituencies within those states) will become less important. While Senator McCain’s Florida win put him in position to claim more victories (and delegates) next week, his loss in Jacksonville is a bit puzzling.
In sharp contrast to South Carolina, where the state's large navy population (centered around Charleston) went overwhelmingly for McCain, the nation's third-largest Navy town, Jacksonville, rejected him by a wide margin.
Makes you wonder: do the people of Jacksonville know something that other voters missed?
Showing posts with label Florida primary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Florida primary. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Can Military Voters Deliver McCain Again?
Today’s Republican primary in Florida appears headed for a photo-finish between Arizona Senator John McCain and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.
Forty-eight hours before the polls opened, a Zogby poll showed the two candidates deadlocked at 30%, well ahead of former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and New York Mayor Rudolph Guliani, who trail with 14 and 13%, respectively.
The former mayor, who skipped six straight early contests to focus on Florida, has slumped badly in the polls over the last month. The latest Rasmussen poll, also released on Sunday, showed Romney leading McCain by six points, and Guliani running a distant third, with only 14%.
With the Florida GOP primary now a two-man race, support of military voters and retirees may (again) prove crucial for McCain. They proved to be a decisive block in the recent South Carolina primary.
While active duty military and retirees represent only 14% of the electorate in the Palmetto State, they accounted for 25% of the 400,000 votes cast in last month’s Republican primary, and they broke solidly for McCain.
As we noted at the time, the Senator’s “triangle” of support included the coastal and Midlands counties that are home to that state’s Army, Navy, Marine Corps and Air Force installations and most of South Carolina’s military retirees. McCain’s support among military voters was more than enough to offset Mike Huckabee’s advantage among evangelicals, concentrated in the upstate region.
Active duty and retired military members represent an even greater prize in Florida. Figures from the state House of Representatives indicated that almost 80,000 military personnel are stationed in the Sunshine State, along with 42,000 military spouses. Another estimate puts the number of military retirees in Florida at 180,000.
Additionally, there are thousands of military personnel who list the state as their home, but are stationed outside Florida. That group became the center of controversy during the 2000 presidential election, amid complaints that some military members (and dependents) had trouble obtaining absentee ballots, received them too late to be counted, and that Democrat operatives were attempting to “suppress” their votes.
Eight years later, it’s unclear how many military personnel have submitted absentee ballots for today’s GOP primary. However, that number may be very high, given the surge in early voting reported by the state Democratic and Republican parties. As of Sunday afternoon, almost a million people had voted early or cast absentee ballots, nearly matching the total turnout for the last contested GOP and Democratic primaries in Florida.
That’s why military voters represent such a key prize in today’s Republican primary. Despite the strains of on-going conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, military members are much more likely to identify themselves as Republicans, in comparison to other Americans . As a 2004 Annenburg study revealed:
Forty-three percent called themselves Republican, 19 percent called themselves Democrats and 28 percent said they were independents. While the party identification of respondents in national polls moves around a bit from week to week, this was strikingly more Republican than the general population in the September 27-October 3 sample. There, 28 percent called themselves Republican, 34 percent Democratic and 27 percent independent.
Active duty military personnel and retirees are also more likely to vote than the general public, making them a reliable block for the Republican candidates they support.
So far, we haven’t seen any polling among Florida’s military population, so it’s hard to what sort of lead McCain has among that group, or if he has an actual advantage. But, in what’s shaping up as an extremely tight race, support among military personnel, retirees and dependents could propel the Senator to key victory, or hand him a stinging defeat. As tonight’s results come in, here are a few regions and counties to watch.
Northwest Florida: The region that includes Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton and Bay Counties is home to the Pensacola Naval Base; Whiting Field Naval Air Station; Tyndall AFB, Hurlburt Field and the sprawling Eglin AFB. Heavily Republican, these counties have one of the nation’s highest concentrations of active duty military personnel and retirees. There are at least 37,000 military voters in Okaloosa County alone, more than 20% of the local population--and a sizeable portion of the electorate.
The Jacksonville Area: Duval, Clay, St John’s and Nassau Counties. Jacksonville is a Navy town with three major military installations, while a number of armed forces retirees live in the surrounding counties. In South Carolina, McCain rolled up solid margins in the region around Charleston’s navy facilities, and he hopes to accomplish the same feat in northeast Florida.
The Space Coast: Brevard County is the home to Patrick AFB, Cape Canaveral and the Kennedy Space Center, with another sizeable contingent of active duty military personnel and retirees.
Tampa-St. Petersburg: MacDill AFB (where CENTCOM and U.S. Special Operations Command have their headquarters) is located in Tampa, and there are significant numbers of military voters in the three counties that make up the metro area: Hillsborough, Pinellas, Hernando and Pasco.
There are smaller military clusters in southern Dade County (around Homestead Air Reserve Base), and in Monroe County, home of the Key West Naval Air Station.
In what promises to be a tight election, a few thousand votes in Florida’s “military counties” could make or break McCain’s chances.
***
ADDENDUM: A final ARG tracking poll from Florida (released this morning) shows Romney with a slight lead, 34-32%, but it’s within the survey’s margin of error. However, other, last-minute polls give Senator McCain a narrow advantage. That underscores the importance of today's military vote; in a close contest, gaining a plurality among the state’s 300,000 military voters may prove decisive (H/T: NRO’s The Corner).
Forty-eight hours before the polls opened, a Zogby poll showed the two candidates deadlocked at 30%, well ahead of former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and New York Mayor Rudolph Guliani, who trail with 14 and 13%, respectively.
The former mayor, who skipped six straight early contests to focus on Florida, has slumped badly in the polls over the last month. The latest Rasmussen poll, also released on Sunday, showed Romney leading McCain by six points, and Guliani running a distant third, with only 14%.
With the Florida GOP primary now a two-man race, support of military voters and retirees may (again) prove crucial for McCain. They proved to be a decisive block in the recent South Carolina primary.
While active duty military and retirees represent only 14% of the electorate in the Palmetto State, they accounted for 25% of the 400,000 votes cast in last month’s Republican primary, and they broke solidly for McCain.
As we noted at the time, the Senator’s “triangle” of support included the coastal and Midlands counties that are home to that state’s Army, Navy, Marine Corps and Air Force installations and most of South Carolina’s military retirees. McCain’s support among military voters was more than enough to offset Mike Huckabee’s advantage among evangelicals, concentrated in the upstate region.
Active duty and retired military members represent an even greater prize in Florida. Figures from the state House of Representatives indicated that almost 80,000 military personnel are stationed in the Sunshine State, along with 42,000 military spouses. Another estimate puts the number of military retirees in Florida at 180,000.
Additionally, there are thousands of military personnel who list the state as their home, but are stationed outside Florida. That group became the center of controversy during the 2000 presidential election, amid complaints that some military members (and dependents) had trouble obtaining absentee ballots, received them too late to be counted, and that Democrat operatives were attempting to “suppress” their votes.
Eight years later, it’s unclear how many military personnel have submitted absentee ballots for today’s GOP primary. However, that number may be very high, given the surge in early voting reported by the state Democratic and Republican parties. As of Sunday afternoon, almost a million people had voted early or cast absentee ballots, nearly matching the total turnout for the last contested GOP and Democratic primaries in Florida.
That’s why military voters represent such a key prize in today’s Republican primary. Despite the strains of on-going conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, military members are much more likely to identify themselves as Republicans, in comparison to other Americans . As a 2004 Annenburg study revealed:
Forty-three percent called themselves Republican, 19 percent called themselves Democrats and 28 percent said they were independents. While the party identification of respondents in national polls moves around a bit from week to week, this was strikingly more Republican than the general population in the September 27-October 3 sample. There, 28 percent called themselves Republican, 34 percent Democratic and 27 percent independent.
Active duty military personnel and retirees are also more likely to vote than the general public, making them a reliable block for the Republican candidates they support.
So far, we haven’t seen any polling among Florida’s military population, so it’s hard to what sort of lead McCain has among that group, or if he has an actual advantage. But, in what’s shaping up as an extremely tight race, support among military personnel, retirees and dependents could propel the Senator to key victory, or hand him a stinging defeat. As tonight’s results come in, here are a few regions and counties to watch.
Northwest Florida: The region that includes Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton and Bay Counties is home to the Pensacola Naval Base; Whiting Field Naval Air Station; Tyndall AFB, Hurlburt Field and the sprawling Eglin AFB. Heavily Republican, these counties have one of the nation’s highest concentrations of active duty military personnel and retirees. There are at least 37,000 military voters in Okaloosa County alone, more than 20% of the local population--and a sizeable portion of the electorate.
The Jacksonville Area: Duval, Clay, St John’s and Nassau Counties. Jacksonville is a Navy town with three major military installations, while a number of armed forces retirees live in the surrounding counties. In South Carolina, McCain rolled up solid margins in the region around Charleston’s navy facilities, and he hopes to accomplish the same feat in northeast Florida.
The Space Coast: Brevard County is the home to Patrick AFB, Cape Canaveral and the Kennedy Space Center, with another sizeable contingent of active duty military personnel and retirees.
Tampa-St. Petersburg: MacDill AFB (where CENTCOM and U.S. Special Operations Command have their headquarters) is located in Tampa, and there are significant numbers of military voters in the three counties that make up the metro area: Hillsborough, Pinellas, Hernando and Pasco.
There are smaller military clusters in southern Dade County (around Homestead Air Reserve Base), and in Monroe County, home of the Key West Naval Air Station.
In what promises to be a tight election, a few thousand votes in Florida’s “military counties” could make or break McCain’s chances.
***
ADDENDUM: A final ARG tracking poll from Florida (released this morning) shows Romney with a slight lead, 34-32%, but it’s within the survey’s margin of error. However, other, last-minute polls give Senator McCain a narrow advantage. That underscores the importance of today's military vote; in a close contest, gaining a plurality among the state’s 300,000 military voters may prove decisive (H/T: NRO’s The Corner).
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