General David Petraeus testifies before the House of Representatives.
General David Petraeus is currently testifying before the House of Representatives, providing details of his long-awaited report on progress in Iraq.
And, judging by the data compiled in his report, substantial, no stunning progress is being made. Politico.com has a link to General Petraeus' briefing slides. We've done some trend analysis on the numbers from the PowerPoint presentation; it reveals favorable trends virtually across-the-board, achieved in remarkably short order. A few highlights are provided below:
OVERALL ATTACKS:
--Peaked in Jun '07 at 1750/month (nationwide); now at 1000 a month (Aug '07)
CIVILIAN DEATHS:
--Peaked at 3000 in Dec '06 (nationwide); now running 1550 a month (Aug '07)
--In Baghdad, reached 2100/month (Dec '06); Aug '07 total was 550
ETHNO-SECTARIAN DEATHS:
--Nationwide, hit 2100/month (Dec '06); most recent total (Aug '07) was 900
--In the 10 Baghdad districts, ethno-sectarian deaths have dropped from a peak of 1600 (Dec '06) to roughly 400 in Aug '07
WEAPONS CACHES FOUND AND CLEARED:
-- Across the country, 2726 were discovered and cleared in 2006; the total for this year (with almost four months remaining) is 4409
--Anbar Province; 1222 found and cleared last year; the 2007 total (so far) is 2111
IEDs (Includes Those Found and Cleared, and Those Detonated by the Enemy)
--Nationwide: Peaked at 3500 in Mar '07; dropped to 2100 by Aug '07
--Baghdad: Highest monthly total was 1200 in May '07; declined to 600 by August of this year
--Anbar: Hit 600/month in March of this year; dropped to 200/month by August
ANBAR ATTACKS
--Decreased from 1350 in Oct '07, to only 200 last month.
Lest we forget, General Petraeus has already been accused by Congressional Democrats of "cooking the books," and his assessment derided as the "Bush-Petraeus" report. That's why he made it a point to remind Congressmen that the testimony is his own, written by the general himself.
Reading early press accounts of General Petraeus's testimony, it's clear that the MSM doesn't want to get into the specifics of his presentation. Instead, they (predictably) focused on criticism by House Democrats, which preceded his remarks. And no wonder; any objective analysis of the data affirms General Petraeus's assertion that the military objectives of the surge are "in large measure being met."
For military (and political) reasons, the general is soft-peddling the surge's success. In his testimony today, Petraeus warned against a pre-mature withdrawal of U.S. forces, warning that such a move could have devastating consequences. If favorable trends continue, General Petraeus suggested that our military presence could return to pre-surge levels--about 130,000 troops--by next summer.
It's a very prudent plan, laid out by a man who has proved his mettle on the battlefields of Iraq. Again, it's worth noting that the "surge" strategy wasn't implemented until February of this year; the bulk of additional ground forces didn't start arriving until the late spring, and the surge won't hit its peak until next month. That makes our military progress even more impressive; as depicted on General Petraeus's first slide, the number of enemy attacks actually peaked in early June, just he launched multiple offenses against the enemy. Since then, the number of terrorist strikes (in all categories) has dropped by more than 40%.
That's quantifiable progress. Not that the Democrats are paying attention; they were too busy trying to transform today's testimony into farce. Hmmm....we wonder how Cindy Sheehan and the Code Pink folks managed to make their way into the hearing room, and wasn't it a coincidence that General Petraeus's microphone didn't work for almost 10 minutes.
But the Petraeus presentation is also aimed at another audience, beyond the Beltway. And, for Americans who bother to actually read his testimony and review those briefing slides, the report will be an eye-opener. By any objective standard, we are making significant gains in Iraq, they have been achieved in a relatively short time, and current trends are likely to continue. And no amount of Democratic criticism, distortions or political stunts can change that.
***
ADDENDUM: Critics of the Petraeus-Crocker Report keep yapping about the lack of "political progress" in Iraq, and we'll hear more of that refrain in the coming days. But their critique ignores a critical point: political progress depends on improvement in the security situation. As conditions on the ground continue to improve, so will the environment for real political progress.
And, judging by the data compiled in his report, substantial, no stunning progress is being made. Politico.com has a link to General Petraeus' briefing slides. We've done some trend analysis on the numbers from the PowerPoint presentation; it reveals favorable trends virtually across-the-board, achieved in remarkably short order. A few highlights are provided below:
OVERALL ATTACKS:
--Peaked in Jun '07 at 1750/month (nationwide); now at 1000 a month (Aug '07)
CIVILIAN DEATHS:
--Peaked at 3000 in Dec '06 (nationwide); now running 1550 a month (Aug '07)
--In Baghdad, reached 2100/month (Dec '06); Aug '07 total was 550
ETHNO-SECTARIAN DEATHS:
--Nationwide, hit 2100/month (Dec '06); most recent total (Aug '07) was 900
--In the 10 Baghdad districts, ethno-sectarian deaths have dropped from a peak of 1600 (Dec '06) to roughly 400 in Aug '07
WEAPONS CACHES FOUND AND CLEARED:
-- Across the country, 2726 were discovered and cleared in 2006; the total for this year (with almost four months remaining) is 4409
--Anbar Province; 1222 found and cleared last year; the 2007 total (so far) is 2111
IEDs (Includes Those Found and Cleared, and Those Detonated by the Enemy)
--Nationwide: Peaked at 3500 in Mar '07; dropped to 2100 by Aug '07
--Baghdad: Highest monthly total was 1200 in May '07; declined to 600 by August of this year
--Anbar: Hit 600/month in March of this year; dropped to 200/month by August
ANBAR ATTACKS
--Decreased from 1350 in Oct '07, to only 200 last month.
Lest we forget, General Petraeus has already been accused by Congressional Democrats of "cooking the books," and his assessment derided as the "Bush-Petraeus" report. That's why he made it a point to remind Congressmen that the testimony is his own, written by the general himself.
Reading early press accounts of General Petraeus's testimony, it's clear that the MSM doesn't want to get into the specifics of his presentation. Instead, they (predictably) focused on criticism by House Democrats, which preceded his remarks. And no wonder; any objective analysis of the data affirms General Petraeus's assertion that the military objectives of the surge are "in large measure being met."
For military (and political) reasons, the general is soft-peddling the surge's success. In his testimony today, Petraeus warned against a pre-mature withdrawal of U.S. forces, warning that such a move could have devastating consequences. If favorable trends continue, General Petraeus suggested that our military presence could return to pre-surge levels--about 130,000 troops--by next summer.
It's a very prudent plan, laid out by a man who has proved his mettle on the battlefields of Iraq. Again, it's worth noting that the "surge" strategy wasn't implemented until February of this year; the bulk of additional ground forces didn't start arriving until the late spring, and the surge won't hit its peak until next month. That makes our military progress even more impressive; as depicted on General Petraeus's first slide, the number of enemy attacks actually peaked in early June, just he launched multiple offenses against the enemy. Since then, the number of terrorist strikes (in all categories) has dropped by more than 40%.
That's quantifiable progress. Not that the Democrats are paying attention; they were too busy trying to transform today's testimony into farce. Hmmm....we wonder how Cindy Sheehan and the Code Pink folks managed to make their way into the hearing room, and wasn't it a coincidence that General Petraeus's microphone didn't work for almost 10 minutes.
But the Petraeus presentation is also aimed at another audience, beyond the Beltway. And, for Americans who bother to actually read his testimony and review those briefing slides, the report will be an eye-opener. By any objective standard, we are making significant gains in Iraq, they have been achieved in a relatively short time, and current trends are likely to continue. And no amount of Democratic criticism, distortions or political stunts can change that.
***
ADDENDUM: Critics of the Petraeus-Crocker Report keep yapping about the lack of "political progress" in Iraq, and we'll hear more of that refrain in the coming days. But their critique ignores a critical point: political progress depends on improvement in the security situation. As conditions on the ground continue to improve, so will the environment for real political progress.
