Reports of His Pending Demise

Our latest column at Examiner.com looks at potential succession scenarios in North Korea--and the limits of our medical intelligence. A South Korean broadcast report--picked up by Reuters--suggests that Kim Jong-il has pancreatic cancer. Patients with that disease (typically) live only three to six months after diagnosis, meaning the DPRK could have a new leader by the end of this year.

But it may be premature to write Kim Jong-il's obituary. Juding by past examples, medical intelligence on foreign leaders is often bad, and reports about the North Korean dictator may prove inaccurate as well.