Missile Launch

***UPDATE***
7:03 PM/PDT

Spoke with a senior defense analyst, who's worked the NK missile program for years. According to this source, there were indications of possible problems with the TD-2's upper stage, or perhaps its payload, in the week before the launch. Those problems may have delayed launch plans for Pyongyang, although atmospheric conditions--and a desire to steal the media spotlight from the space shuttle--were contributing factors as well. At this point, it's unclear if the apparent, pre-launch problems were contributing factors in the TD-2 failure.

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***UPDATE***
4:43 PM/PDT

Media outlets now reporting 6 missile launches, including a single TD-2. More launches could be in the offing. BTW, I'm hearing reports of possible problems with the TD-2 when it was still on the launch pad.

**UPDATE***
3:01 PM/PDT

Where did it land..that is the next question regarding today's TD-2 launch. With the long-range missile apparently failing 40 seconds into flight, it is possible that debris from the TD-2 fell on Russia. That may be why UN Ambassador John Bolton is pushing for immediate consultations on today's missile launch.

***UPDATE***
2:39 PM/PDT

U.S. military is confirming three missile tests...two short-range (probable SCUD) and one long-range, i.e. the TD-2. Early analysis indicates the missile "failed" 40 seconds into its flight. That would be within the intercept envelope for Aegis-equipped U.S. naval vessels in the Sea of Japan. However, there is no confirmation (yet) of any attempt to knock down the missile.

***UPDATE***
2:07 PM/PDT

News accounts as to what transpired in North Korea are all over the place. I've seen reports that North Korea fired four SCUD-type missiles; others suggest the TD-2 was also launched, and failed in mid-air. Time to take a breath, sit back and see what actually transpired. A combination SCUD/TD-2 launch is entirely possible, particularly if Pyongyang was trying to get the U.S.'s attention and/or confuse our collection assets and missile defense systems.

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***UPDATE***
1:46 PM/PDT

Updated information indicates the two missiles fired by North Korea were not ballistic, suggesting that they were probably short-range anti-ship missiles, fired from coastal sites. Japanese sources indicate the missiles landed in the Sea of Japan. Cobra Ball typically doesn't cover anti-ship or cruise missile tests, although its unknown if that platform was on station today. The launch of two, non-ballistic missiles might have been part of a "firepower demonstration," perhaps a prelude to the TD-2 launch.

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Fox and CNN are reporting that North Korea has test-fired a missile within the last 45 minutes. The missile was apparently NOT the long-range TD-2, which has been sitting on a launch pad for weeks. There had been speculation in the intelligence community that Pyongyang might launch a sort-range SCUD before firing the TD-2. Today's launch might have been intended to provoke a U.S. response, including flights by U.S. RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft. That, in turn, could allow the North to attempt an intercept or even a shoot-down of those platforms. On a less provocative scale, the first launch could be designed to put our "Cobra Ball" recce aircraft in a poor position to cover the TD-2 launch. Upper atmospheric winds are now reportedly favorable launch of the long-range missile.

There are no reports (yet) of any U.S. attempt to engage the missile. Details to follow.