tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10820485.post8460139322212787831..comments2023-11-03T09:36:22.100-04:00Comments on In From the Cold: A Gift From DamascusGeorge Smileyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07049707648660651119noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10820485.post-9268343718315922472010-04-26T14:50:58.211-04:002010-04-26T14:50:58.211-04:00Hezbollah is less a terrorist organization than it...Hezbollah is less a terrorist organization than it is a sectarian-based political movement with a multi-faceted organization that happens to include military, intelligence and special operations and special weapons capabilities. But they also have members of parliament and cabinet ministers in the Government of Lebanon, community centers, health clinics, schools, and industrial entities. <br /><br />The appellation "terrorist"is clearly a highly contrived legalistic one driven by POLITICAL considerations in the US and Israel. This designation has more to do with their alliance with Iran and Syria, their opposition to Israel and their work to undermine US influence in the region, than the nature of the organization or their methods and actions. <br /><br />Have they carried out unconventional attacks against foreign forces in Lebanon? Certainly. And they, or individuals affiliated with them, may have also been involved in the attack in Buenos Aires against overly broadly defined "Israeli" targets. <br /><br />It was a despicable attack against a civilian target, no doubt, but still one that could loosely fall within the bounds of open conflict with the State of Israel. It is interesting they have not engaged in similar attacks since. I believe they have decided it was counter-productive.<br /><br />In any case, I don't see much difference between that and Israeli air and artillery strikes in populated areas of Lebanon -- even protected UN compounds -- that have killed thousands upon thousands of innocent civilians, or Israeli assassination squads that operate, apparently, across the globe with impunity.<br /><br />As for the SCUD-Ds, surely you don't take such weapons to be a serious military threat to Israel, do you? Short of WMD warheads, they are a mere nuisance whose value is largely in the realm of propaganda and deterrence. Yes, now Israel cannot bomb Lebanon on a whim without taking into account the possibility that Hezbollah will retaliate against Israeli cities. Not necessarily a bad thing if they do, in fact, deter the Israelis from doing stupid things. But they are practically useless from a military perspective because they are notoriously inaccurate.Schwerepunkthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00772891426823851608noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10820485.post-77772319130870932712010-04-17T03:09:44.282-04:002010-04-17T03:09:44.282-04:00It would be interesting to learn what percentage o...It would be interesting to learn what percentage of Israel's nuclear deterrent is / will be threatened by a transfer of SCUDs into Lebanon.<br /><br />As you mentioned, Israel will almost certainly judge this development as a provocation but I would suggest that in the hands of Hezbollah, the threat is meant on behalf of Iran as it continues down the road to it's own nuclear capability. <br /><br />After Israel was shocked by the unexpected ASCM attack on one of its ships by Hezbollah, I doubt many within the defense establishment will take this development lightly.<br /><br />If SCUD-Ds are being moved into Lebanon, I would rate the transfer only slightly less provocative than the feared arrival of S-300s in Iran. Israel's hand is being played for them and at this rate, I would not be surprised to see a reaction within a matter of months.tfhrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08056518846851745411noreply@blogger.com