tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10820485.post558206282729461951..comments2023-11-03T09:36:22.100-04:00Comments on In From the Cold: The Saturday SkedaddleGeorge Smileyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07049707648660651119noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10820485.post-42528138717301030242011-03-19T03:25:48.397-04:002011-03-19T03:25:48.397-04:00I think it would be more accurate to say that Obam...I think it would be more accurate to say that Obama has lost Egypt and Saudi Arabia. No other nation can offer what the United States can. No doubt the loss of Mubarak in a disorderly transition, and a weak replacement regime that must placate anti-American public opinion, means a less friendly regime no matter the occupant of the White House. However, 90% of the damage to our relations with Saudi can be repaired by a Presidential election.<br /><br />I agree with Professor Rubin, who I have met and have great respect for, that the Obama administration's handling of the situation has not been ideal due to ideology. However, I would also remind readers of the blog that this was also Professor Rubin's criticism of the Bush administrations democracy policy in Lebanon, the Palestinian Territories, and Iraq. <br /><br />Professor Rubin heads a research institute with many fluent Arabic speakers and is a scholar of Middle Eastern History and Culture. From reading his work, my opinion of his work is that he concludes that the problem in the Middle East is much deeper than a lack of democracy, but an entrenched and failed culture for which there is no short term fix. Two failed and destructive ideologies are competing for power, and the choice is between a bad and a worse regime, good is not an option. I agree with this assessment, but it is totally at odds with the full spectrum of American public opinion on both the right and the left that believes the Middle East can be become advanced capitalistic democratic and tolerant societies in years, rather than many decades or centuries.Dakohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08673043580464604348noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10820485.post-37076255683101182132011-03-19T01:32:21.126-04:002011-03-19T01:32:21.126-04:00I think you are missing the point here.
The last ...I think you are missing the point here.<br /><br />The last thing we want is to have our naval assets trapped inside the Persian Gulf if a major conflict with Iran breaks out. The Hormuz Straits are easily mined and using a carrier task force as essentially a fixed airbase is folly when air bases are availble in Bahrain and Saudi.<br /><br />The best defense for a carrier task force is maneuver room (distance from a threat when you need it). You can get it in the Gulf of Oman, but not in the Persian Gulf. Once hostile air defences and anti-shipping missile defenses are degraded, naval air can be brought closer to southeatern Iran, but from outside of the Straits of Hormuz.<br /><br />While the Saudis are ticked at the administration's waffling, they are pragmatic enough to know the US is their only natural ally in the region. A lot of what they are doing is putting pressure on a naive US President.Corky Boydhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16363812378536729410noreply@blogger.com