tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10820485.post3305773498253927386..comments2023-11-03T09:36:22.100-04:00Comments on In From the Cold: The October Surprise?George Smileyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07049707648660651119noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10820485.post-82676015160202876392008-09-30T10:27:00.000-04:002008-09-30T10:27:00.000-04:00It certainly does seem that an October surprise by...It certainly does seem that an October surprise by Dubya would be highly implausible and impolitic under current circumstances. But he might not be averse to an Israeli surprise. That could actually help McCain by making the public more inclined to seek a tested leader - as they did in the last election. Conversely, if Dubya is opposed to an Israeli strike, they would would probably be better off getting it done before the election - when it would be implausible and impolitic for Dubya to obstruct. I think that you can discount the political transition in Israel by at least 80%. A strike on Iran would be Olmert's last and only shot at a positive legacy. Also, the Iran issue has a life of its own, because the IDF has been preparing for it for a generation. So if the Defense Minister decides that the time is ripe, Olmert would almost certainly go along for the ride.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10820485.post-32484542527120248272008-09-29T19:00:00.000-04:002008-09-29T19:00:00.000-04:00US action or support for Israeli action is most li...US action or support for Israeli action is most likely between the election and the inauguration. A lame duck president has virtually a free hand to supply tanker services, or even B-2 preliminary strikes to suppress defensive installations.GeorgeHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10736838055941100599noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10820485.post-67346722984632485372008-09-29T13:45:00.000-04:002008-09-29T13:45:00.000-04:00Can't disagree one bit. Probability of US action, ...Can't disagree one bit. Probability of US action, zero. It would be unsupported by the electorate and virtual insure victory for the opposing party. Wouldn't be a good legacy for Bush to leave to Republicans. <BR/><BR/>Conversely, Israel conducting something surgical like the Osirik operation (with 24 years of intervening technology improvements) or the more recent Spring Syrian incursion.<BR/><BR/>Don't downplay the probability because of governmental transition. Likud would be supportive and the significant difference between us and Israel is that they understand that the threat doesn't wait for political posturing. They can handle both at the same time.Ed Rasimushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13667325554289268659noreply@blogger.com