tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10820485.post115254094035593478..comments2023-11-03T09:36:22.100-04:00Comments on In From the Cold: On the RocksGeorge Smileyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07049707648660651119noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10820485.post-1152558221428389172006-07-10T15:03:00.000-04:002006-07-10T15:03:00.000-04:00There is a certain, painful truth in what you writ...There is a certain, painful truth in what you write. However, over the long haul, both South Korea and China have to be prepared for the eventual collapse of the DPRK.<BR/><BR/>Bottom line: a bankrupt, failed state can't go on indefinitely. At some point, even the world's biggest drug and counterfeiting ring won't be enough to prop up Kim Jong-il and his ruling clique; then, the question becomes, does NK go out with a whimper or a bang? In either case, there will be a refugee/humanitarian crisis on a staggering scale, and it will land squarely in the lap of South Korea and China. <BR/><BR/>Seoul and Beijing may lack the status quo, but it's not a viable long-term policy option. Of course, convincing them of that is another problem altogether.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12712369389411084085noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10820485.post-1152544813558842882006-07-10T11:20:00.000-04:002006-07-10T11:20:00.000-04:00I'm becoming more convinced that neither South Kor...I'm becoming more convinced that neither South Korea nor China want a change in the status quo. After listening to Austin Bay and Jim Dunnigan on various podcasts over the weekend, it seems that their biggest fear is not Nork nukes; it's economic collapse. China fears the flood of refugees. South Korea looks at what unification cost for Germany, and balks at absorbing the cost of unifcation with North Korea.<BR/><BR/>In addition, China likes stability and predictability. Kim is the devil they know; they have no interest in pushing him around because they know how unpredictable he can be.<BR/><BR/>The only down-side for either country is the possibility that Japan might choose to go nuclear, but that's not yet a threat that's on the table.<BR/><BR/>The net is that we have no leverage (or even common interests, really, with regard to NK) with either China or South Korea. Russia has its hands full elsewhere, and also does not want another crisis to deal with. <BR/><BR/>Those who insist that "China is the key" are ignoring the fact that China already has the NK that it wants. The only real ally we have in this mess is Japan, who has less leverage with NK than we do.<BR/><BR/>So it appears that things can only get worse. Yippee.Diane Wilsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03075384770362237247noreply@blogger.com