tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10820485.post1108866813353412873..comments2023-11-03T09:36:22.100-04:00Comments on In From the Cold: Changing the Assessment on IranGeorge Smileyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07049707648660651119noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10820485.post-37520924893017938652007-12-05T22:12:00.000-05:002007-12-05T22:12:00.000-05:00This blog is like having an uncle who used to work...This blog is like having an uncle who used to work for the CIA. You really help sort the spin. I was sharply reminded of that because I got an email from Howard Dean - yes that one - this AM which ends: <BR/><BR/>"President Bush used faulty intelligence and fear-mongering to enter Iraq. Now he's been caught using faulty intelligence and fear-mongering to engage Iran."<BR/><BR/>And they wonder why Democrats like me will vote for any Republican - even toe tappers and page turners. The whole thing smells fishy to me - particularly with the uncertainties introduced by the CIA playing politics. If the President was set up - and he would know of course - I'd like to see him fire those responsible loudly and publicly for the sake of all future presidents of both parties.lgudehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12774491337993415578noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10820485.post-81265584627147074022007-12-05T02:32:00.000-05:002007-12-05T02:32:00.000-05:00Ok, let me get this straight - of the five questio...Ok, let me get this straight - of the five question you want to ask the President, none of them have to do with policy on Iran?Andyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05924320590375035146noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10820485.post-2221775972957933782007-12-04T21:01:00.000-05:002007-12-04T21:01:00.000-05:00I believe this NIE does two things not widely disc...I believe this NIE does two things not widely discussed.<BR/><BR/>1. It distances the US from any Israeli action. This NIE may have unleashed the Israeli terrier. It is hard to fathom that this information was not telegraphed and discussed with Olmert before the NIE became public.<BR/><BR/>2. It places the diplomatic ball squarely in Iran's court. It also goes a long way in undermining Ahmadinnerjacket's domestic rhetoric. Undermining the mullas and Ahmadinnerjacket in the mind of the Iranian public may help de-stabilize the regime.<BR/><BR/>Benjamin_WalthropB_Walthrophttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13986767326308741215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10820485.post-92063141660063479752007-12-04T13:10:00.000-05:002007-12-04T13:10:00.000-05:00I can't, for the life of me, see any way Iran's ac...I can't, for the life of me, see any way Iran's actions regarding the past three years of chest-thumping is a result of them giving up their weaponization efforts. Postponing, maybe. Outsourcing, possibly. But this whole catch-us-if-you-can rhetoric with the centrifuges is odd brinkmanship. Why appear to be building a weapon when you've halted development? Especially when you just had your neighbor's armed forces vaporized because they refused to show that they weren't developing those same weapons?<BR/><BR/>The other odd thing is... why declassify the NIE if it makes you look foolish for using harsh words when dealing with Tehran? Is the Bush administration attempting to justify a future downscaling of the rhetoric? Did they think the accusations of "yet another march to war" were getting to hot to handle? Seems odd.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10816254984278919970noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10820485.post-75007760801466299252007-12-04T12:03:00.000-05:002007-12-04T12:03:00.000-05:00As I noted in the post, I think the only reason th...As I noted in the post, I think the only reason the CIA would assign substantial credence to Asgari would be if (a) he brought substantial, amplifying information with him, and (b) we were able to corroborate key claims by other sources/methods. <BR/><BR/>Yes, I would be suspicious about the nature of his defection. But no one is perfect at counter-intel, including Iran. A number of high-level sources have defected in the past, literally under the noses of hostile intel services. The defection of the KGB's Athens station chief in the late 70s comes to mind, as does the CIA operation which took Polish Colonel Richard Kuklinski out of his homeland in the early 80s. Kuklinski was one of our most important sources behind the Iron Curtain, and provided tremendous info on the Warsaw Pact command structure and nuclear war plans, among other things. <BR/><BR/>I've said it before and it's worth repeating again: the validity of a source is established over time and through independent corroboration. Apparently, General Asgari's information is standing up to scrutiny, at least for now. <BR/><BR/>My biggest concern about the NIE is it's inability to draw any medium to long-range conclusion. After stating that the weapons program is now frozen, the intel community's "best minds" are unable to decide where it goes from here; the bulk of the assessment is nothing more than an exercise in bureaucratic CYA. In that respect, it's a terrible piece of analysis, and it sets the stage for years of western inactivity toward Iran and its nuclear program.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12712369389411084085noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10820485.post-57574808224980151482007-12-04T11:51:00.000-05:002007-12-04T11:51:00.000-05:00If I were an analyst, I would worry that a single ...If I were an analyst, I would worry that a single defector with a dramatically different story is a double agent sent to cloud intel assessments up to that point. I would be doubly worried if the defector had been allowed to sell his property and bring his family with him, especially from a country like Iran. And if I worked in this White House, I'd worry that a dramatically changed NIE was designed to trip up this administration more than to shed new light on a murky situation. Le Carre would have a field day with this plot -- why should we give it more national security credence than any of le Carre's other plots? FFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06981706601001285694noreply@blogger.com