Tuesday, July 18, 2006

Iran's Gambit

It remains the $64,000 question in the current Middle East conflict? What is Iran up to, and why did it "suddenly" send its proxies from Hamas and Hizballah into war against Israel.

More than a few analysts, including Edward Luttwak, believe that Tehran is looking for a diversion. With a looming deadline to respond to western proposals on its nuclear programs, Iran decided to change the subject, by launching large-scale attacks against Israel. Presto, the international community is now focused on events in Israel and Lebanon, and Iran's nuclear efforts are out of the spotlight, at least for now. This diversion may coincide with a particularly important phase of the nuclear program, which means that western ISR assets normally allocated for Iran are being diverted to cover the Levant region. Less coverage of Iranian targets means a greater probability that Iran could complete (or conceal) sensitive activities, with less chance of detection.

But Iran's motivations go beyond creating a sideshow or diversion. By formenting conflict in the Levant, Tehran is attempting to affirm its credentials as the logical hegemon in the Persian Gulf region and beyond. Sending Hamas and Hizballah on their murderous missions, Iran is demonstrating its ability to launch potentially crippling attacks against Israel, something that massed Arab armies were unable to do in four major wars. And, by giving major weapons systems to the terrorists, Iran has created a mechanism for striking at the heart of Israel, a development that has serious security and psychological implications for the relatively new Olmert government.

More importantly, the Iranians (and, to a lesser extent, the Syrians) have seemingly placed themselves beyond Israel's reach, at least for now. Despite western media hysteria about collateral damage, the IDF response (so far) has been somewhat restrained--a sharp contrast to the indiscriminate volleys of rockets aimed at civilian targets in Israel. While Jewish towns, cities and communities are under rocket attack, Damascus and Tehran remain unmolested. That (again) is a major departure from past conflicts, where cities like Haifa were relatively undisturbed, while the IDF rained destruction on terrorist targets outside Israeli borders. While Hizballah steadily loses military assets (and capabilities) in the field, its stature as an anti-Israeli force has grown. Ditto for the credentials of Tehran and Syria, for developing (and facilitating) a system for taking the fight to the Israelis.

This message is also being aimed at U.S. audiences. Earlier today, an Iranian official warned that his country's Hizballah affiliate was prepared to launch terrorist strikes against U.S. and western targets around the world--while (presumably) the war continues in the Levant. His comments are designed to reinforce perceptions that U.S. (and Israeli) military power are incapable of dealing with the threat posed by radical Islam, in Iraq, in Lebanon, and even in our own backyard.

That message, Iran believes, will produce a number of desired reactions. The western Europeans, who depend heavily on Iranian oil, will increase their calls for diplomacy, and prove even more willing to accomodate Tehran on its nuclear issues. The Iranians expect a similar reaction from their neighbors in the Persian Gulf who have little use for Tehran, or its terrorist proxies. But, the the gulf states sense weakness from the west, they will have little chance but to fall in line, and toe the Iranian line. Our gulf allies are clearly no fans of Ahmendinejad and his terrorist allies, but they need security assistance and guarantees in the event that Iran and its partners set their sights closer to home. And, with the U.S. preoccupied in Iraq, there is palpable regional concern about Washington's willingness to deal decisively with Iran.

The current Middle East conflict is far from over, and the Israelis will largely crush Hizballah's military capabilities in the coming days. But that triumph may be little more than a pyrric victory; as movements, Hizballah and Hamas will survive the destruction of their military arms, and (with help from Damascus and Tehran), live to regroup and fight another day. Meanwhile, Syria gets a measure of revenge against an implacable foe--without firing a shot, generating more support for Bashir Assad within his own Baathist movement, and securing his hold on power. That will ensure continuation of the Syrian conduit between Iran and Lebabnon, allowing Teharn to sustain its proxies in their war against Israel. That, in turn, will enhance Ahmedinejad's stature both at home and abroad, as a force to be reckoned with, and one capable of striking Iran's arch-enemies, with little fear of reprisal.

It's quite a gambit for Iran, and so far, it appears to be working.

8 comments:

Cogitatus Incognito said...

One question I've seen no one address: what happens to the geopolitical landscape if Saudi Arabian air force assets (with US assistance in the background) take out most/much of Iran's nuclear facilities? Saudi's reaction to Iran's Hezballah gambit suggest to me they consider Iran to have gone too far.

Billmil said...

If you listen real close you can almost here the rumble of GE turbines in Knob Noster

boinky said...

Sadam Hussein thinks it's Iran causing problems too...wonder if the report is true.

crosspatch said...

I have a theory. Basically it would be getting Israel involved in three ongoing low-intensity conflicts at the same time. The third one being with Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the West Bank. So you get Br'er Rabbit fighting three tar babies at the same time. Tar babies being sticky as they are, the more you fight them, the more they engulf you. After a couple of months, Israel is low on supplies, their forces are tired, their people are weary mentally from keeping up with war news and dodging missiles and then Iran lets their "August Surprise" out of the bag.

Like I said, it's just a theory. Anyone have any idea what Islamic Jihad is up to these days?

eatyourbeans said...

I have a military question and a political one. First, could Isreal, with or without its nukes, put an end to Iran as a functioning political entity? (I don't think merely bombing their nuke plants will do it) Second, what would it take to keep China or Russia from intervening?

crosspatch said...

"Second, what would it take to keep China or Russia from intervening?"

Discovery of a huge domestic oil field.

The way I am begining to think of things it is like China and Russia are saying "America thinks they won the cold war ... not really, we simply changed the nature of the game". Now that China in particular is developing quickly, we are seen as a competitor for scare resources. I believe there is nothing we could do, they are out to do anything then can to set us back. Damaging the US would leave more resources for them.

d_Brit said...

One way or the other, 'Iran's Gambit' will become clear on the 22nd of August. Till then, all is speculation.

M. Simon said...

It all depends on your time frame.

I consider the Israeli attacks on Gaza and Lebanon as spoiler attacks.

The Iranian threat from Lebanon is over. Fear can no longer work well on the Israelis.

Now the shoe is on the other foot. Syria must fear attacks. In fact I have heard rumors of Israeli SF operatinig in Syria at least when it comes to hot pursuit.

The Israelis are masters of multi-front warfare.

Once Hizbollah is in hand Israel's job is to goad Syria so as to bring in Iran before the "magic" 22 August date.

Having the Saudis back Israel is a sea change. It may be they have become disgusted with the Palestinians. The oil is running out. Why waste the $$ on losers?

BTW rumor has it that Hamas is ready to say nomas and give up Shalit.

Evidently doubling up with relatives and friends with electricity has ruined Gaza social life. Note that the West Bank folks have been pretty quiet.

Change is coming to the Arab world.